Trump’s narrow window for Middle East peace

Amid the gathering of business leaders in Riyadh last week, President Donald Trump delivered a blistering critique of US foreign policy over the last three decades. “In the end, the so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves,” he said.

The president took the rhetorical shift a step further, announcing he would seek an end to sanctions on Syria, which prompted a sustained standing ovation in the ballroom. This administration appears willing to redefine the rules of the game across the whole of the Middle East, not just in Syria.

Before the trip, details emerged of active negotiations between the US and Hamas, facilitated through a backchannel, Palestinian businessman Bishara Bahbah. Concerning Yemen, the administration this month reached a swift detente with the Houthis after a rapid escalation. However, it is the not-so-quiet negotiations with Iran on denuclearization that reflect the full scope of the approach. Trump went so far as to share online an interview in which former Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani discussed the scope of nuclear enrichment in a potential deal.

Is the administration on the cusp of a geopolitical step change in the Middle East? As Trump and his team settle back into Washington’s day-to-day routine, they have left behind a sense of tepid optimism in the region that transformation through peace, not war, could be possible.

Trump left behind a sense of tepid optimism in the region that transformation through peace, not war, could be possible

Taufiq Rahim

Trump has been vocal about resolving global conflicts and the White House has codified this in the “peace through strength” policy doctrine. Beyond his current stance, the president has warned about the dangers of nuclear war for four decades. During his first term, despite the bellicose rhetoric, he prioritized engagement with nuclear powers, including long-time foes like North Korea.

Clearly, the president prefers grand bargains — and all the optics they bring. While he was able to usher in the Abraham Accords during his first term and a framework agreement with China (on tariffs), broader deals with Iran, Russia and other geopolitical flashpoints eluded him.

The Middle East itself was in a very different place in 2017. Turkiye was still recovering from the dynamics of a coup. Daesh was on the march (initially). Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen were full-fledged quagmires. Several Gulf countries and Iran were almost in open conflict.

Fast forward to 2025 and the Gulf, Turkiye and Iran have partially resolved their differences. Meanwhile, countries that were previously in strife have stabilized, albeit under the auspices of unorthodox forces in some, such as Syria and Yemen. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has become a peacemaker, leading the outreach to Iran.

The stars would appear to be aligning around a new dynamic in the Middle East — almost. The Gaza crisis casts an apocalyptic shadow over the region. Perhaps the region’s changing dynamic fed into Hamas’ geostrategic calculus in carrying out the Oct. 7 attacks. Today, however, Israel may be the biggest obstacle to the region’s march forward. Its rejection of a ceasefire thwarts regional integration and a focus on reconciliation.

The stars would appear to be aligning — almost. The Gaza crisis casts an apocalyptic shadow over the region

Taufiq Rahim

Trump avoided a stop in Israel on his trip, a glaring act of omission. He called out the humanitarian situation, saying, “the people in Gaza are starving.” Many of Trump’s political allies are loath to encourage an end to the Gaza crisis in any way that limits Israel’s ambitions. However, the current stance of the Israeli government is not only holding back the region but also Trump’s ambitious agenda. And it could very much undermine his legacy.

Partisans across the aisle have responded to the trip to the Gulf with equal parts derision and ridicule. This reaction misses the point, even if legitimate criticisms are at play.

Acknowledging this window of opportunity for change in the Middle East is not about giving Trump the benefit of the doubt. Simply put, the window will not be open for long and taking advantage is to everyone’s benefit. Deeper concerns related to the Iranian regime’s commitments, Hamas’ staying power and the fragility of the Syrian government could undermine progress. The challenges ahead are still significant.

This moment in the Middle East requires entrenched interests and partisans across the aisle to work together in the common interest. That also means setting aside misgivings about the president.

A new Middle East is possible if that happens.

• Taufiq Rahim is the author of “Trump 2.5: A Primer” and a senior fellow at New America.